July. Barely started. And we’ve already burned through two record heatwaves. Just a glimpse of what’s coming.
May was warm. June was different. The UN weather agency called it extraordinary. That feels like an understatement now. Temper weren’t just breaking records. They were smashing them. Across the whole continent.
A brief break came. Then it went again. Another wave is coming.
If this feels wrong. It is. But it’s exactly what we said it would be. Scientists knew this was the plan in a warmer world. Driven by burning fossil fuels. Releasing heat-trapping gases. Trapping the heat.
Stephen Belcher. Chief scientist at the UK Met Office he says it straight.
“Human-induced climate change has made these events more likely and more intense.”
Look at the charts. May. June. Averages across the UK are marked in red. Because they were so far above normal. It wasn’t just London or the south. Few places escaped.
37.7C hit Lingwood. Norfolk. Provisional figures say so. The old June high? 35.6C. Set in 1957. Tied in 1976 we forgot how hot 1976 was. Maybe because 37 is harder to forget.
Belcher calls it sobering. I’d call it a wake-up slap.
Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading says the margin is the problem.
“We normally expect records broken by tenths. Maybe a degree.”
Two degrees? More? That’s shattering it. Noticeable. Extraordinary. Coming right off the May heat.
And the humidity. Ah, the humidity.
It was a double whammy. Heat plus moisture means your sweat stops working. Your body can’t cool down. It just sits there. Stuck.
Even the night wasn’t enough. You need cold nights to recover. To reset. The sun sets but the heat stays. Sleep becomes impossible.
Cardiff didn’t drop below 23.5°C on the night of June 24. Warmest June night in the UK. Ever. Most of England and Wales got a “tropical night.” Where the temp never falls below 20°C. Historically? Rare. Now? Expected.
“As global temperatures keep rising,” says Hawkins, “we expect more tropical nights.”
This wasn’t just a UK problem. Europe was cooking.
Germany called it “for the history books.” France called it “historic.” The “heat dome” sat right there. Trapped the air.
Over a dozen countries broke their June records. Western central eastern Europe all took a hit. Some saw temperatures over 40°C. Even in June. Usually July is the hotter month. Not anymore.
France and Spain got their hottest average June days ever. Switzerland? 39°C. Two degrees higher than the previous June record.
Sonia Seneviratne at ETH Zurich saw the charts. She wasn’t surprised.
“When you know we have a warming climate…”
She says it wasn’t unusual compared to what she studies.
Why Europe? Why here? Geography matters. Local regions heat at different speeds. Europe is heating fast. Faster. It’s exposed. Vulnerable to these strong spells.
Does this mean next summer is hotter than this one?
Maybe not. Maybe it’ll dip. Climate change isn’t a straight line up. Every summer. Always worse. It doesn’t work like that.
But the trend? The trend is up.
Summer will keep getting warmer on average. As long as we pump carbon into the sky. It’s simple math. Bad math for us.
“Until we get to net zero,” says Hawkins, “the heatwaves get hotter. And hotter. And hotter.”
We keep adding gas to the fire. The fire keeps growing. What do you think happens then?
The records are there. Written in red. Waiting for the next summer.
