Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States increased by 2.4% in 2025, reversing two years of declines, new data from the Rhodium Group reveals. The primary driver behind this surge is a renewed reliance on coal power, coupled with higher energy demand and colder winter temperatures.
Rising Electricity Demand and Coal’s Comeback
U.S. electricity consumption grew rapidly last year, fueled partly by the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Data centers, which require enormous amounts of energy to operate, contributed significantly to this increased demand. To meet this need, electric utilities burned approximately 13% more coal in 2025 than in the previous year.
This trend highlights a critical tension: while renewable energy sources continue to grow, they haven’t yet scaled quickly enough to offset the immediate energy needs of emerging technologies like AI. The continued dependence on coal underscores the challenges in transitioning to a fully decarbonized power grid.
Weather and Heating Fuel Consumption
Colder-than-usual winter temperatures also played a role in the emissions increase. Many households and businesses burned more natural gas and heating oil to stay warm. This underscores how weather patterns can directly impact short-term emissions trends, even as long-term policies aim for deeper structural changes.
Policy Impact and Future Projections
While President Trump’s administration rolled back climate policies and promoted fossil fuels, the Rhodium Group researchers found that these changes had a limited immediate effect on 2025 emissions. “The main story here was partly weather and partly a growing power sector that’s burning more coal,” said Michael Gaffney, a research analyst at the Rhodium Group.
However, the long-term implications of the Trump administration’s policies are expected to become more pronounced in future years. The current uptick in emissions is a reminder that policy reversals can accelerate fossil fuel consumption if not counterbalanced by aggressive investments in renewable energy and efficiency measures.
The increase in U.S. emissions in 2025 highlights the complex interplay between economic growth, energy demand, weather patterns, and policy choices. The resurgence of coal signals a potential setback in climate progress, emphasizing the urgent need for continued investment in sustainable energy solutions and resilient infrastructure.
