Satellite imagery reveals alarming rates of land subsidence in parts of Arizona’s Willcox Basin, highlighting the severe consequences of over-pumping groundwater for agriculture.
Some areas are sinking as much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) per year – the fastest rate recorded in the state. This rapid sinking, documented by researchers presenting at The Geological Society of America Connects 2025 conference, is driven by decades of intensive groundwater withdrawal to irrigate crops.
This isn’t just a surface-level issue. As water is extracted from underground reservoirs, it leaves behind spaces that once provided structural support to the overlying soil and rock layers. This voiding process leads to compaction and permanent sinking of the land – much like pressing down on a sponge and losing its volume. In some areas of the Willcox Basin, this subsidence has already reached up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) since mid-century.
The consequences are tangible: wells run dry, cracks spiderweb across the landscape, and the basin loses its ability to naturally replenish groundwater reserves. Even generous rainfall in recent years, including record snowmelt, hasn’t halted this trend, with some areas experiencing accelerated sinking. This underscores a critical reality: simply replenishing depleted aquifers through occasional wet periods is unlikely to offset the ongoing extraction rates.
However, there’s a glimmer of hope. In 2024, Arizona policymakers designated the Willcox Basin as an Active Management Area (AMA). This designation empowers regulators to impose stricter controls on groundwater pumping and implement plans aimed at sustainable water use and aquifer recovery. Similar AMAs in other regions have demonstrated success in curbing subsidence rates – with Tucson even reporting a complete halt to land sinking due to effective management strategies.
While Danielle Smilovsky, the lead researcher from Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi who used satellite technology (InSAR) to track these changes, emphasizes that “subsidence will never completely stop,” she cautiously believes AMAs can significantly slow its pace. This gives hope that proactive measures can mitigate the dire effects of this “thirsty” ground and protect vital water resources in Arizona’s future.
